Horse Racing Preview – Southwell – 4th April 2017

 Here is our horse racing preview which comes from Southwell today. Not the best looking cards for a Tuesday, with the loss of Ludlow we are subject to a jump card at Kempton and an all weather experience at Southwell. Both selections will come from the all weather this afternoon with the fist being Chris Dwyer’s Arzaak. The son of Casamento is becoming extremely exposed and is 0-10 in his career resume. This will be his first visit to Southwell, but not taking anything away from him despite being beaten three times into the runners up spot he actually has not been beaten by wide margins.

 

He was just touched off in a 0-75 handicap at Newcastle two runs back and was not over disappointing when fifth at Wolverhampton last time going behind by one and a half lengths in what was a blanket finish between the top five finishers. He will be dropped back to the optimum trip this afternoon and once more gets the in form De Sousa in the plate.

 

Of any dangers in the race, both Hart Stopper and Sheepscar Lad should be on the premises, I am not convinced enough that Hart Stopper will be effective enough over today’s trip. His last race came at Wolverhampton over 7.2f when finishing third behind Expresso Freddo who has been beaten twice since, in fact the whole race has not really shown enough to emulate his run which has flattered him slightly. Nigel Tinkler’s Sheepscar Lad ran a good second to Melonade at Gosforth Park eleven days ago. He should come on for the run and is probably the main danger.

 

The race is what is is, a poor maiden, Sheepscar Lad will definitely be on the premises once more with no doubt Jamie Spencer wanting to get to the front on Hart Stopper, but the tentative vote goes to Arzaak, despite his 0-10 he should shed the experience against these now dropping back to 5f and with the blinkers being applied for the first time.

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 This looks a match up on paper between Call Out Loud and Custard The Dragon. They both met each other ten days ago when the former got the better of Custard The Dragon to one length. This time around Custard The Dragon gets the 3lb turnaround at the weights, but with Rawlinson’s 3lb claiming weight I would like to predict the form will not be reversed. Mark Johnston’s Thomas Cranmer will probably try to burn them both off under Joe Fanning.

 

He was seen having a terrible fall at Chester on his last start of last season when un-shipping Franny Norton on the bend. His only win came in a maiden at Chester when beating Devil’s Bridge who commands a rating of 88, but has been subsequently thrashed on his first run of the new campaign at Doncaster last weekend.

 

Ed Walker has his team in good order on the all weather bringing a current stat of 6-14 (42%) to the table and saddles Bold Prediction. The son of Kodiac is just one of two in the race taking on the younger generation. He has not run that badly on all three appearances in 2017 competing at higher level than this afternoon’s contenders. With progressed runs his odds being the outsider of the field does not reflect that he is very capable of producing an upset now dropping into a 0-90 class event. Quixote will have his first run for new trainer David Loughnane after a good dead heated fourth at Kempton Park when trained by Tony Carroll.

 

This is as tricky as it comes, Custard The Dragon and Call Out Loud meet again with the latter probably having enough up his sleeve to fend off the John Mackie’s charge, Mark Johnston has to be feared in any all weather race, with Joe Fanning 7-20 (35%) and getting the three year old weight allowance he has to be taken seriously. I am really hoping a winner is there for Ed Walker with Bold Prediction here. He won a 0-95 at Lingfield Park in February last year and he has been consistent enough to really get into the winning enclosure this afternoon.  Cheekpieces have been applied for the first time and at 8/1 he has a realistic chance.

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